Picking where to apply is mostly about counting and balance, not luck. Here's a simple way to do it so you're not panicking in April.
Most students land somewhere around 8 to 12 applications. Fewer than 6 and you're leaning hard on a few outcomes you don't control. More than 15 and the quality of each application starts to drop because you've run out of hours. Pick a number you can actually do well, then fill it.
A good list isn't a pile of dream schools. A rough split that works for a lot of people:
The mistake is a list that's all reaches with one throwaway safety you'd hate. Flip that. Here's how to sort any school into a category.
A school you can't afford isn't really on your list. Run net-price calculators early, and make sure at least one safety is affordable without a maybe-scholarship. Future-you in April will be grateful.
Once you've got names, sort them honestly. Candor reads your profile, estimates your odds at each school against verified data, and flags where your list is too top-heavy or too thin. You add and remove, it keeps the balance honest.